News of impending hyper-inflation is everywhere. Fund managers, financial bloggers and economic commentators are showcasing their “inflationsniffing” bona fi des and providing insight on how to confront this specter. Notably, Universa Investments, a fund associated with Nassim N. Taleb, best selling author of The Black Swan, has launched the “Black Swan Protection Protocol Inflation fund” […]

Though the bear market that began last year will be remembered as one of the most severe in history, financial crises ultimately come and go. The financial services industry on the other hand, has been permanently altered. The bear market of 2008 will come to be regarded as a watershed year that triggered an investor

The fact that we are currently experiencing a severe recession generates little “shock value” to most of us by now. We have read about and heard about the weakening state of the economy for the past 18 months. We have witnessed a 50 percent drop in the overall stock market. While not everybody has reached

Since last November’s election we have heard from many investors who are unnerved at the prospect of a socialist future. Indeed an enormous expansion of federal spending is underway and ambitious plans have been hatched for greater government involvement in healthcare, energy and in other sectors. Newsweek magazine recently went so far as to announce

During periods of distress in the capital markets we often hear from investors who, rather than hold a portion of their portfolios in common stocks, tell us they plan to hold cash, in order to “wait to see what will happen” and later “get back in when things are more certain.” We understand their apprehension

If there was ever a year to test investors resolve, 2008 was it. A new year is upon us and with it comes a good deal of change. Many are fearful regarding the global economy and the future of capital markets. We hope that a restatement of our most fundamental convictions will provide an anchor

Voters have sent a clear message of concern regarding U.S. fiscal policy, and as our parent organization AIER recently made clear, spending discipline is vital to the nation’s future prosperity. But it is important to understand the nature of the relationship between deficits, debt, economic growth, and your portfolio’s value. This month (see Deficits, Debt,

The Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors announced on November 3 that it would purchase another $600 billion in Treasuries in order to reduce long term interest rates. In response long term rates began to increase immediately. As the month drew to a close the 30 year Treasury bond yield had increased from 3.93 percent to

In recent weeks the financial media has focused on the question of a “bond bubble.” This is the notion that bond prices have ascended to a level beyond reason and that the trend must soon be reversed. A common refrain is that interest rates will rise as inflation expectations mount; bond prices, which move inversely