While politicians and pundits ponder the merits of war, investors too must consider its consequences. Dire warnings, from higher oil prices to the costs of protracted U.S. involvement, are everywhere. At bottom, however, the pertinent question is whether the probability of war and its impact are discounted in the markets. Our investment approach is predicated …

Sept. 2002 – News of War Read More »

“I have but one lamp by which my feet are guided, and that is the lamp of experience. I know of no way of judging the future but by the past.”—Patrick Henry, 1775 Our recommendations are based on our observations of historical economic data. This is not to suggest that history will always repeat, but …

Oct. 2002 – Stock Market Cycles Read More »

Investing globally has never been easier. With the click of a mouse, an investor can access research and data on public companies from London to Bangkok, and with another, buy shares through a mutual fund, depository receipt, or directly through an international exchange. This level of information and access is unprecedented. Paradoxically though, the same …

Nov. 2002 – Globalization and Global Investing Read More »

Investors who have heeded our advice to hold gold related assets have seen the dollar price of gold rise appreciably in recent weeks. As of December 19th the price stood at $345 per ounce, a price not reached in six years. A rising chorus of voices, largely those of gold enthusiasts, is proclaiming (yet again) …

Dec. 2002 – All That Glitters Read More »

We know of a retirement program that has been very much in the news, in which investments were restricted to the securities issued by a single entity. Most participants appeared satisfied, until it was discovered that the accounting methods used to track the soundness of those securities, while apparently within recognized guidelines, completely obscured the …

Jan. 2002 – Risky Retirement Plans Read More »

Prior to the mid 1950s, common stocks usually paid more in dividends than corporate bonds, except during brief periods, such as the late 1920s, when common stock prices were unusually high. The historic rationale for pricing common stocks to provide more dividend income than was available on bonds was that companies are under no obligation …

Feb. 2002 – Dividends are Important Read More »

The table below is an update to the table we published immediately following the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. The stock market has bounced back sharply, as it often has following dramatic events in history, but this is hardly a signal to “buy on bad news.” The fact is, stock price …

Mar. 2002 – Six Months Later Read More »

U.S. economic activity reached a peak in March 2001. Conventional wisdom suggests that at the onset of recession, investors should avoid the stocks of companies selling big-ticket items because nervous consumers or businesses might defer these purchases and instead focus on firms that are ostensibly unaffected by GDP trends. Following this logic, an investor would …

Apr. 2002 – Investment Intuition Read More »